9. 9. 2024 - Josef Brynda
USD Performence Consumer price index
Policy rate decisions since the pandemic
5. 9. 2024 - Josef Brynda
The dollar slipped against most major currencies on Wednesday after July U.S. job openings data signaled a softening labor market, tilting the odds further in favor of larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Traders boosted bets that the Fed will deliver a half-a-percentage-point reduction at its next meeting, following news that job openings in July fell to the lowest level in 3-1/2 years.
Friday's U.S. payrolls report could offer further clues on the timing and pace of Fed rate cuts.
"The U.S. central bank must not keep interest rates too high much longer or it risks causing too much harm to employment, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency's strength against six major peers, was down 0.3% at 101.4. The dollar slipped 1% to 144.07 yen, a one-week low, as global financial markets generally avoided riskier assets.
3. 9. 2024 - Josef Brynda
The US dollar has recently faced mounting pressures, raising concerns about whether this signals the beginning of a more sustained period of weakness. August was the dollar's worst month of the year as the July US jobs report and Fed Chair Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole signaled there could be a larger rate cut of 50 basis points coming at the Fed’s September meeting.
The US Dollar spot index (DXY) was down 2.3% in August, registering its second-worst month since the start of 2023 and slipping to over one-year lows.
This came along with US economic data remaining mostly resilient, and soft landing hopes continuing to gain traction. This lands the US dollar in the middle of the ‘dollar smile’ theory, which makes the USD prone to drawdowns as investors go on a hunt for higher yields elsewhere.
The speculator positioning in the US dollar, as a result, has shifted to a net short in the week of August 27 for the first time since January. These developments have led to increased scrutiny of the factors driving the dollar's current trajectory and the risks that could further undermine its position
28. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda
Nvidia Earnings Anticipation Markets are on edge awaiting Nvidia's Q2 fiscal 2025 earnings report, due after Wednesday's close. As a bellwether for AI and the broader market, Nvidia's results could significantly impact market sentiment.
High Expectations Analysts predict Nvidia will forecast over 70% revenue growth for the current quarter. Options markets imply a potential 10% stock move post-earnings. Nvidia shares have surged 160% year-to-date and 1,000% since October 2022.
Commodities Decline Global commodities weakened on Wednesday. Oil, gold, and metals prices fell, with rising Chinese inventories pressuring demand. Mining stocks like Anglo American, Rio Tinto, and Glencore declined as a result.
Buffett Reduces Bank of America Stake Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold an additional $982 million of Bank of America stock, continuing to trim its position. The total stake reduction is now nearly 13% since mid-July, though Berkshire remains the bank's largest shareholder.
Turkish Lira Volatility Turkey's lira experienced a brief, sharp drop in early trading before stabilizing. The currency weakened 1.4% to a record low against the dollar before recovering, puzzling traders.
Labor Market Perceptions The Conference Board's Labor Differential Index, measuring job market sentiment, remains positive but is trending downward. This aligns with declining quit rates, suggesting worsening perceptions of job availability and potentially signaling softening employment expectations.
27. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda
Markets Await Key Data and Earnings
Stocks showed minimal movement as investors await Nvidia earnings and US inflation data later this week. US equity futures edged higher, while European and UK stocks rose, led by mining stocks. Trading volumes remained low across European markets.
Oil Outlook Sours as Banks Lower Forecasts
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have reduced their oil price forecasts for 2025, expecting Brent crude to average below $80 a barrel. Both banks predict a surplus in the crude market, with prices trending lower over the next 12 months. OPEC+ decisions may aim to discipline non-OPEC supply.
Chinese Economy Concerns Grow
PDD Holdings, owner of Temu, surprised investors with a gloomy outlook, citing inevitable declines in revenue and profits as economic growth slows. This adds to growing concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
Skydance Media Set to Acquire Paramount Global
David Ellison's Skydance Media is poised to become the new owner of Paramount Global, ending a dramatic acquisition contest. The deal is expected to complete in the first half of 2025.
US Office Values Plunge in Central Business Districts
Office values in US central business districts have dropped 52% from their peaks, with major cities like San Francisco and Manhattan experiencing significant declines. However, suburban areas are faring better, with only an 18% drop nationally.
Fed Rate Cuts: Impact on Borrowing Costs
While the Fed is likely to start cutting rates in September, the impact on long-term borrowing costs remains uncertain. Long-term rates depend on market expectations of future inflation and economic conditions, not just on the Fed's immediate actions.
26. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda
Fundamental analysis focuses on examining the intrinsic value of an asset based on economic and financial factors. Key aspects include:
The goal of fundamental analysis is to determine the underlying value of an asset and identify if it's overvalued or undervalued
Sentiment analysis, also known as market sentiment analysis, focuses on gauging the overall attitude and emotions of market participants. It involves:
Sentiment analysis aims to understand the collective psychology driving market movements, often in the short term.
23. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda
Imagine waking up to a world where the U.S. dollar (USD), the bedrock of global finance, has collapsed. This scenario may seem far-fetched, but it's a narrative often found on dubious platforms pushing gold, crypto, and extremist political views, and it occasionally creeps into mainstream discourse. The greenback has always had its external foes during the long period of its dominance—from the communist bloc and anti-colonialists to contemporary adversaries like China, Russia, and other emerging powers. Meanwhile, critics argue that mounting inflation, the rising U.S. federal deficit, and government entitlements could bring down the USD's dominance from within.
22. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda
Why does the Federal Reserve cut interest rates when the economy begins to struggle? The theory is that by cutting rates, borrowing costs decrease, and this prompts businesses to take out loans to hire more people and expand production. The logic works in reverse when the economy is hot.
When interest rates change, there are real-world effects on the ways that consumers and businesses can access credit to make necessary purchases and plan their finances. It even affects some life insurance policies.
Here, we take a look at the impact on various parts of the economy when the Fed changes interest rates, from lending and borrowing to consumer spending to the stock market. This article explores how consumers pay more for the capital required to make purchases and why businesses will face higher costs tied to expanding their operations and funding payrolls when the Fed changes rates. But the preceding entities are not the only ones that suffer due to higher costs, as this article explains.
22. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda
21. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda
The dollar edged higher on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level against the euro this year as investors waited for revisions to U.S. employment data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The euro climbed 
EURUSD to $1.1132, the highest since December, as investors increased their bets on Fed rate cuts this year, dragging down U.S. bond yields and weighing on the dollar. It was last down 0.1% at $1.1119 as the dollar found a footing.